Political Predictions: Get on the Crazy Train!

The next presidential election is only some 36 months away so I figure I better start making wildly speculative predictions about political hopefuls.

First off, Obama will be favored to win. I can’t see a likely scenario that would leave him as politically stagnant as Jimmy Carter in 1980--if for no other reason than from the ability to learn from Jimmy Carter in 1980. The economy isn’t wholly predictable, but the wars in the Middle East are. In both cases, I wouldn’t get too excited for either party. Even if America is attacked again by al-Qaeda or whoever, I think as many people would rally around Obama (if not more) than would say, “Told ya’ so! Obama weakened America!” Though no one outside of a radio talk show would actually say that.

But the Republican party, well, they get to have a little more fun. Unlike my football predictions, we won’t know how badly I blew these for quite a while.

President Obama vs. Mitt Romney (+15)
In short, I don’t think Mitt Romney brings enough firepower to the table. He’s a leader in many polls right now but I think he got there from default. He never disappeared from the world of politics and never devastated his campaign with a PR blunder or one-state strategy (ala Rudy Guilliani). But Romney doesn’t cover any relevant electoral math and isn’t trusted by the far right that I’ll detail shortly. Actually I’ll just do it now.

President Obama vs. Sarah Palin (+30)
They say there is no Republican candidate that will keep Republicans at home on Election Day. Palin would put that theory to the test. Her image as the “Alaskan Maverick” was whacked by McCain’s team, mocked gratuitously by comedians and wholly ignored by Obama last election. Palin (eventually) takes the right-wing stance with near radical fervor on every single issue giving her a dedicated, and vocal, fanbase but little broad appeal. I don’t know if she could get a running mate to really energize moderate conservatives, but it’d have to be a cool, collected, intelligent and politically-experienced guy…who would actually do better as the front-end of a ticket.

President Obama vs. Mike Huckabee (+7)
Of the “obvious” candidates, I like Huckabee’s chances best (if I was Republican). He never had a chance in 2008 due to name recognition, but that’s no longer a problem. By staying in the race long after McCain had mathematically won, Huckabee was essentially running for 2012. Long before Obama won, he was going to win and a lot of people picked up on that pretty quickly. Huckabee got a lot of exposure, made friends on SNL and has since landed his own show on FOX News. From what I’ve watched, Huckabee believes if people could pay less taxes and would go to church every Sunday, America’s problems should be solved. If he stays on a positive message while running against an incumbent, his chances aren’t bad--I give him even odds for being our next vice-presidential hopeful.

President Obama vs. Piyush “Bobby” Jindal (+15)
Won’t happen. Jindal has said he’s not running in 2012; oppose to the more expected answer “It’s too early to think about that, I’m focused with my duties at hand, etc, etc.”. They say Jindal is eloquent but he’s hidden it pretty well in my opinion. They also say Jindal is a “moderate” Republican but I think that’s only because Democrats praised him for successfully organizing a statewide evacuation in 2008 for Hurricane Gustuv. I haven’t read anything he’s done that could possibly earn him criticism from even ultra-conservative Republicans. As a side note, think any liberal pundit will constantly refer to him as “Piysh Jindal” in an effort to emphasize his “other-ness”? Yeah, if it's ever going to be his time, it's not now.

President Obama vs. Charlie Crist (+95)
Even more won’t happen. Crist is running for Senate in 2010. If he wins he’ll be running with the senatorial experience Obama had except he’ll be running against Obama (now with four more years of presidential experience than any Republican in the country, aside from George H.W. Bush). If Crist loses the senatorial seat, he can no longer promise Florida to the Republican party (a previous major selling point). Take my word, Crist isn’t running for president in 2012, he’s only 53, he’s running for 2016.

NOTE: Every Republican I've mentioned is or was a governor because I feel that is a critical component when taking on an incumbent president. Since conservatives can't attack Obama's lack of experience anymore, they themselves need to prove executive experience. Against incumbent presidents, governors fare far better than senators. For precedent, look at the elections in 2004, 1996, 1992, 1984, 1980, 1976, etc.

This is getting a little longer than I anticipated, so names you will know 30 months from now: Gov. Tim Pawlenty, Gov. Haley Barbour and Gov. Gary E. Johnson. As a Democrat, I strongly consider (and almost fear) any of their potential. As a (hypothetical) Republican, I'd take my chances with any combination of these three for the two-person ticket before going back to the 2008 hopefuls.