NFL Predictions: Championship Weekend

Lesson from last week: If sports casters ever bring up the virtue of "momentum" again, feel free to throw last week in their face as the red-hot Cowboys and Chargers got appropriately and unexplainably embarrassed, respectively. Conversely, the Colts won with relative ease after four weeks of just playing Madden '09.

New York (Jets) at Indianapolis
The Jets were not only unlikely to win a spot in the playoffs last fall but their head coach Rex Ryan said it "was not possible." Go figure, the Colts came from behind to beat the Jaguars, giving them home field advantage throughout the playoffs (rendering their last two games obsolete). One of said games was against the Jets, who then managed to beat "the Colts" and enter the playoffs. So if the football gods are cruelly ironic, the Jets have to win this game. But while people do a lot of praying on Sundays, I don't think this theological angle is a common betting technique. In fact, so many people are going to be betting on the Colts that it'd be the smarter bet to pick the Jets (money-wise). And though the Jets' defense has been flying, Rex Ryan has never beaten Peyton Manning (excluding that throw-away game)--including the years Ryan was defensive coordinator for the Ravens. And while Peyton Manning is always enough reason to pick the Colts to win any game, I think their own defense has been an understated factor this season. I have to pick the Goliath of this game. Colts win.

Minnesota at New Orleans
I wrote on November 28th that a Vikings-Saints conference championship game would be "more fun and more expected than anything the Superbowl can promise" and I can proudly still stand by that. Both are exceptional teams on both sides of the ball and have quarterbacks putting up unprecedented numbers. Easily the most surprising thing about Favre this entire season has been his new-found ability to sacrifice a play. The man has learned to throw the ball away or go for the short pass rather than force an circus throw down the field. I take this as an indicator that Favre has learned to trust his teammates for the first time in years--and with good reason. However, throw-for-throw, I like Drew Brees more--as also previously written about. And if I liked the quarterbacks the same, I'd still go with the Saints because their head coach, Sean Payton, keeps drama out of the locker room and juggles a better running game. And if I liked the coaches the same, I'd still go with the Saints because they are at home and all four Minnesota losses this year were away games. Saints win.