NFL Predictions: Superbowl Weekend

Indianapolis Colts vs. New Orleans Saints
Before this season, the Colts got a brand new coach, new coordinator and lost two of their best wide receivers. On top of this, their best defensive player, Bob Sanders, continued to be injured--which is what happens when you try to tackle trucks with your neck--and the Colts still hadn't picked up a running back who can do more than tie this shoelaces. Somehow, though, they survived. Somehow they flourished. Somehow they made it to the Superbowl. Make no mistake, "somehow" is named Peyton Manning; and even though his on-field talent is only arguably league-best, he is more of the Colts' talent than any single player on any other team.

Conversely the Saints have been one of the most fun teams to watch this entire season. They had a considerably harder schedule than the Colts and won their games with more points and style week after week. While the Colts stumbled past the Jaguars and Texans, the Saints were dismantling a Giants team so thoroughly that they never recovered. Likewise, the Patriots' decade of self-righteous dignity was stripped from them by the Saints and paraded down Bourbon Street like so many cheap string beads.

If the Saints want to do what no other team has done this year (beat Manning), they need to think like no other team has done. Traditionally speaking, if you want to neutralize a quarterback, you blitz 5 to 7 guys continuously. You knock down the quarterback or at least make him run. This is how the Saints retired Kurt Warner and put Brett Favre back in a pseudo-retirement position that'll just jerk Minnesota around for a while. However, blitz packages will not work against the Colts. This is largely because the Colts have so completely neglected their running game that you'd swear Joseph Addai was a middle child. Team after team has come after Manning, and even if they get to him in the first half--they run out of blitz schemes and he dices the under-manned secondaries in the second half.

The second problem with blitzing Manning as much as teams do, is that the defenses wear out by the 4th quarter. On a pass play, the O-line just has to stand up and be in the way, so when the Colts are running 10 or 15 more pass plays than normal teams, eventually you have relatively strong linemen protecting a quarterback who has dissected the defense's playbook.

So Saints, if you want to win, don't blitz. Keep 6 or 7 or 8 guys back and make the Colts run the ball. If the Colts are going to win this game, make sure it's because of Addai, because Manning will just make it too easy. And this is where the game will be decided. The Colts have stronger kickers, the Saints better returners. The Saints have an evenly explosive offense, the Colts defense has more hidden talent than the last three seasons of American Idol combined.

The Saints were as lucky to win against the Vikings as they were to get 5 turnovers against them; and then required an overtime field goal. And even that wasn't as lucky as the Colts not having to play the Chargers two weeks ago. The Saints won't get 5 turnovers on the Colts; but the Saints also aren't the Chargers.

Saints win--and for bonus points, Drew Brees gets Superbowl MVP.